by Marc Gilbert, Managing Director & Senior Partner, Nikolaus Lang, Managing Director & Senior Partner; Global Leader, Global Advantage Practice, Georgia Mavropoulos, Knowledge Expert, Team Manager, and Michael McAdoo, Partner & Director, Global Trade & Investment, Boston Consulting Group (BCG)

Global trade is slowing as the Ukraine conflict and its consequences have replaced the pandemic as the leading drag on growth.

Trade will grow at a slower average rate than GDP in the coming nine years, reversing the pattern of trade-led global growth that has prevailed in recent decades.

Familiar trade patterns will shift, not only as a result of the war in Ukraine, but also owing to Western nations' decreasing reliance on China trade and to the rise of economic blocs such as the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) as companies continue to diversify their supply chain risks.

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