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  • November 10, 2026

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BTJ 3-4/21 - SUSTAINABILITY: Feasible on all counts. Five per cent zero-emission fuels by 2030 needed for Paris-aligned shipping decarbonisation

by Peder Osterkamp, Shipping Lead, COP26 Climate Champions; Dr Tristan Smith, Reader in Energy and Shipping, University College London; and Kasper Søgaard, Head of Research, Global Maritime Forum1

The ambition of the Getting to Zero Coalition is to have commercially viable zero-emission vessels operating along deep-sea trade routes by 2030.

But at what degree of adoption do zero-emission fuels become "commercially viable?"

An S-curve based analysis suggests that zero-emission fuels need to make up 5% of the international shipping fuel mix by 2030 to enable decarbonisation in line with the Paris Agreement goals.

1 The views expressed in this Insight Brief are those of the authors alone and not the Getting to Zero Coalition or the Global Maritime Forum, Friends of Ocean Action or the World Economic Forum.

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