by Aparna Bharadwaj, Managing Director & Senior Partner; Global Leader, Global Advantage Practice, Dominic DeSapio, Director, Geopolitics & Trade Impact, Marc Gilbert, Managing Director & Senior Partner; Global Lead, Center for Geopolitics, Nikolaus Lang, Managing Director & Senior Partner; Global Leader, BCG Henderson Institute; Global Vice Chair, Global Advantage Practice, Kasey Maggard, Center for Geopolitics Executive Director, Michael McAdoo, Partner & Director, Global Trade & Investment, Morten Seja, Principal, and Peter Ullrich, Managing Director & Partner, Boston Consulting Group (BCG)

As the multilateralism dissolves, a new order seems to be emerging in which goods are traded under different sets of rules.

BCG created four scenarios for the next decade, and sees momentum for a multinodal trade patchwork. In the patchwork scenario, trade would be managed through four main nodes, each with distinct rules and approaches: a group of 'Plurilaterist' nations, the US, China, and the other BRICS+ nations.

Overall trade would remain resilient, expanding slightly faster than global GDP for the next ten years, but the routes many goods travel would change. As a group, the Plurilateralist nations would see above-average growth among themselves and most of the Global South.

The US share of global trade would fall, while China would deepen its trade with other BRICS+ nations and the rest of the Global South.

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